Ohio will determine the 2008 Election


	Seed Newsvine

Ohio is the pivotable state in the 2008 election, just as it was in 2004 and 2000. In 2000 Florida drew all the attention but the next closest state contest with the highest electoral vote count was Ohio. Separated by just a few percentage points, had Ohio gone for Gore, Florida's results would have been inconsequential. In 2004 Ohio again voted Republican and it's 20 electoral college votes gave G.W. Bush his victory. By less than 3% the election resulted in a Bush victory with 289 electoral college votes instead of 269 votes and a chaotic battle in the House of Representatives (where Bush probably would have won anyhow). In the past 100 years and 25 presidental elections Ohio has voted with the winning party in all but 2 elections.

Ohio represents the most disputed state with the highest electoral college vote total (20). Demographically Ohio almost average in nearly every census statistice except for two. It is far "whiter" than average and has a higher percentage of unionized workers than the average. Economically it is commonly thought that Ohio has struggled more than many states because of its reliance on "old economy" production, but in reality this is not the case. Ohio has strugged with the loss of production at about the average of the rest of the country. The bottom line is that the "averageness" of Ohio makes it the prototypical election battleground state.

48.0	39.0	44.0	45.0	43.6	43.4
Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Survey USA 5/23/08		Rasmussen Reports 5/19/2008		Polster.com 5/20/2008

Since we believe as Ohio will go so will go the election, we will be tracking Ohio polls as an indication of how the election will go.

Recent PB Submissions: