India's Magically Declining Population
 |
 |
|
 Seed Newsvine |
|
On August 15, 1999 the one billionth baby was born on the Indian subcontinent. Miraculously, the population then dipped well under one billion and did not emerge over one billion again until May 11, 2000. At least this is what must have happened according to the Indian government.On May 11, 2000 The Indian government officially recognized the one billionth child born, calling it "a moment of celebration, a moment to ponder." Most population experts believe this event actually occurred 254 days earlier. This minor clerical error is a difference of nearly 11 million people. It also means that India will likely pass China in population a full 3 years earlier than the predicted 2031.
On May 11 The Indian government and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) jointly chose a baby girl at random to be the 1 billionth child. Three points of interest should be noted. The UNFPA's own experts put the date at August 15, 1999 but went along with the Indian Government because politics is more important than accuracy. Second; the United Nations cannot count. In press releases in 2003 they projected that India would add 530 million people and will pass China in 2045. Their own numbers; however, show India adding that 530 million and passing China in 2031; a full 14 years earlier than projected.
In reality, world population projections are a very inexact science because all are based on unknown assumptions of growth rates. The most optimistic views has the growth rate slowing from the current 1.4% growth to half this by 2025. The reason for the lowering of growth rates includes both a lower birth rate and a higher death rated spurned on by HIV cases. The United Nations is projecting 278 million AIDS-related deaths by 2050. Couple this with a greater number of people unable to find sufficient food to sustain life and those growth rate number just might fit into their projections.
Of all this trivia, the most amazing point of the original story is that India "celebrated" that birth. India has an illiteracy rate of 40%, rapidly declining water resources, an HIV epidemic growing by millions per year, and a shortage of arable farm land. Only governments have the ability to spin a looming disaster into a reason to celebrate.
Recent PB Submissions:
