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Guide to the 2008 Election
3 Things You Should Watch for This Election Season
If you are planning to follow the upcoming U.S. presidential election here are some things to watch to make the whole process more informative, interesting, and fun. (These are not ranked in any particular order of importance, nor may they even be very important).
1. If Barack Obama wins it could mark the first contested election that the Democrats win without carrying a southern state. The only time this occurred was in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson hardly needed them, carrying every other state. The significance of this should not be overlooked as the south is the most entrenched, conservative portion of the country. The south on the losing side in 1964 ushered in the most dramatic changes in American society since the civil war.
2. The State to watch: For all practical purposes the election will boil down to who wins one state: Ohio. If the race remains as razor thin as it is at the beginning the election will probably be determined by the buckeye state. With its 20 electoral college votes it is big enough to make the difference. Demographically, Ohio is a fair representation of the nation and politically it seems to drift from around the center never straying more than 5% in one direction or the other. What this means is that we pity the poor people of Ohio that will be inundated with campaign ads. In all likelihood more money per voter will be spent in Ohio than any other state with the bulk going to the media.
3. Group think: Also known in the political world as "Pack Journalism"; this is an almost natural process that goes on among the reporters covering a candidate. The reporters have very limited access to the candidate himself so most of the talking they do is among other reporters. Most of the stories during this campaign season will develop from the gossip among the reporters. Every minor detail gets exaggerated because these reporters don’t have anything better to do during the day and their editors/publishers need salacious tidbits to keep their readers and viewers tuned in. The superfluous issues (race, age, preachers, bowling scores) are fueled by the media. It gives them something to talk about.
Where did come from? Ironically, political journalism today owes its very nature to Richard Nixon. Nixon, and his VP Agnew, broke the old code of civility between politicians and journalists, taking the adversarial process to new heights. In the end it was reporters that brought him down. Today every reporter’s dream is to be the next Woodward and Bernstein with the result that no piece of information can be too trivial. A small piece of tape on a hotel door started the process that brought down a president.
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